Research
Tens of millions of messages a day. These are the interesting bits. We take in an enormous amount of market data, and our job is to make sense of it. Research is where we publish what we find: weekly commentary as markets move, and state-of-the-industry reports.
The Data LO:DOWN
Weekly global market intelligence, drawn from the data our own trading runs on. Led by Adam Morgan McCarthy, it is market commentary for traders: what moved, why it moved, and what it says about the world around us as it is happening. About five minutes a week, free.
The Reports
Two state-of-the-industry reports in the last twelve months, covering market making and prediction markets.
The State of Crypto Market Making
A practical guide for founders on the risks, mechanics and decisions that shape crypto market making. It draws on over 2,000 crypto community members across 98 countries, plus conversations with founders, investors and industry experts, and maps where the structural risks tend to get introduced.
What it found
– Surveyed more than 2,000 crypto community members across 98 countries in June 2025.
– 89% believe market makers move token prices. Most market-making strategies are delta neutral and indifferent to direction.
– 70% want market makers to stand trial for their conduct, and 37% think they exist to coordinate price manipulation.
– 67% say more transparency would make them trust market makers. 69% claim to know how they earn; fewer than half can name a legitimate method.
– Terms worth insisting on: depth KPIs within 1% of mid, held for 95% of trading hours, tracked on a live dashboard and tied to exit clauses.
Trading the Beautiful Game
Every World Cup match contract on Kalshi and Polymarket, across all 104 games. 16bn contracts, $4.9bn of real cash, and most of the coverage stopped at those totals. This counts what actually carried the money, why the same fixtures traded so differently on the two venues, and how one product decision moved roughly a billion contracts.
What it found
– 16 billion contracts and about $4.9 billion of cash traded across Kalshi and Polymarket over all 104 matches, 8 June to 19 July 2026.
– More real money than the $2.8–4.3 billion analysts projected for US sportsbooks on the tournament.
– The final, Spain v Argentina in extra time, was the biggest game: $366 million of volume and $145 million of cash on Kalshi.
– Kalshi’s advance contract drew $1.18 billion, 41% of all match cash. The two venues earned roughly $122 million in fees.
– Busiest day: 25 June, 368 million Kalshi contracts.