–Trading the
Beautiful Game
Spain won the World Cup in extra time, and prediction markets had the biggest six weeks of their short history while it happened.
Why This Report Exists.
The World Cup finished in July, and prediction markets registered record volumes throughout the tournament.
Most of the coverage has stopped at the headline totals, 16bn contracts and $4.9bn of cash.
Far less of it explains which contracts carried the money, why the same fixtures traded so differently on the two venues, and what any of it says about how these businesses actually earn.
This report counts every World Cup match contract on Kalshi and Polymarket across all 104 games, with Kalshi cash and fees measured at minute-level VWAP rather than modelled.
It sets out the three contracts a knockout tie produces and when each settles, what happens to volume once a game passes 90 minutes, and how one product decision moved roughly a billion contracts.
Key Topics
THE SIZE OF IT
16bn contracts and $4.9bn of real cash traded across Kalshi and Polymarket over 104 games
ONE GAME, THREE CONTRACTS
The 90-minute moneyline, the advance market, and the outright winner, and when each stops trading
A SINGLE PRODUCT DECISION
How the default market on each venue sent the same fixtures' flow in opposite directions
EXTRA TIME IS A PRODUCT
Why games past the 90 traded 72% more in the round of 32, and where that volume lands
THE TOLL BOOTH
Quadratic fees, maker rebates, and how Kalshi out-earned Polymarket 3.7 to 1
THE MANUFACTURED WHISTLE
What BTC binaries reveal about the demand for short, settlement-dense windows
Download the full report
This free report is for anyone trading, building, or covering prediction markets as they move into mainstream sports.
Access the full 33-page report, including 15 exhibits, per-game data across all 104 matches, and the methodology behind every figure.
(Free Download)